Invitation to a meeting in Stavanger
Thursday 1 November 2007, time: 19:00
Universitetet i Stavanger, Styrerommet,
Arne Rettedals bygg, Kjell Arholmsv. 41

Decision-making in the Oil & Gas Industry –
From Blissful Ignorance to Uncertainty Induced Confusion

 Lecture by
Professor Reidar B Bratvold, UiS

The battle against deterministic forecasts and financial valuations in the oil and gas industry appears
 to have been won, as evidenced by the plethora of papers, conference sessions, and forums
focused on uncertainty quantification or profit prediction. Yet, decision makers are still not sure what
they should do. Rather than basing important decisions on a single number, they now find themselves
buried under a mountain of probability distributions. Uncertainty quantification seems to have
confused more than it has enlightened.

In this talk, we present the findings of a survey of oil and gas professionals that addressed the
following two questions: To what degree has uncertainty quantification improved in the oil and gas
industry over the last five years? Has this improvement translated into improved decision making?

Lecture will be given in English                                                                                                
Seminar is open to the public – No seminar fee
Registration is not necessary 

For more information, please contact NTVA by
e-mail: ntvamail@ntva.ntnu.no  or
phone: 73 59 08 63

   Trondheim 9 October 2007 

Yours sincerely  

Hein Johnson
Secretary General, NTVA